PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE: This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write. I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf. The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie. And it is where you want to be on a golf course.
I use the word “major” in the headline because, when I was a lobbyist, I used to wait impatiently for release of what was called then and is called now, “The Joint Ways and Means Budget Framework.”
Sound a bit weighty?
Yes.
And, you have to be either a political junkie or a former lobbyist to wait with baited breath for the document. I qualify on both counts.
But, in the way the State of Oregon budget is developed when the Legislature is in regular session, what the Ways and Means leaders say is important.
Almost as important as what the governor recommends when he or she submits budget recommendations to the Legislature at the start of its every-other-year long session. That occurs on December 1, a couple months before legislators show up in Salem – or, this year, show up virtually, often on Zoom.
So, several months later, what the Ways and Means co-chairs recommend is informed by later developments, as well as the state of political affairs among the 90 legislators.
The document is important for these reasons:
- First, it sets the stage for what happens as the Legislature heads toward adjournment in late June.
- Second, it represents what legislative leaders say are important allocations to such political funding priorities as K-12 education, higher education, public safety (including State Police and prisons), and social programs (including Medicaid and children’s health).
[Those are the major programs, which receive state personal and corporate tax revenue. Almost all other government programs are funded by federal funds, fees or lottery revenue, so the “state general fund allocations” are critical from both financial and political points of view.]
- Third, it appears that the State of Oregon two-year budget can be balanced without increasing tax revenue, though, of course, some legislators in Salem still want to do so.
- Fourth, it is not yet clear how the new budget framework affects the “kicker” – the process that requires taxpayer refunds if new tax revenue projections are more than 2 per cent higher than previous projections. The kicker is designed to control state spending, though it remains very controversial politically.
What the legislative leaders unveiled last week was summarized in these ways by my former colleagues in the lobbying firm, CFM Advocates.
With the state of Oregon receiving $2.6 billion from the American Rescue Plan, around $600 million in recent COVID- and wildfire-related FEMA reimbursements, and with last month’s quarterly economic forecast predicting higher-than-expected revenue, lawmakers are facing a much different budget situation than expected earlier in the pandemic.
The document outlined a $28 billion plan to fund agencies and services over the cycle starting July 1, 2021 and ending on June 30, 2023. Their goal is to fully fund K-12 schools and higher education while potentially introducing reductions in the state’s Medicaid program, the Oregon Health Plan.
While lawmakers have indicated a desire to hold benefits and eligibility harmless, their plan may end up reducing provider and hospital reimbursements, thus adversely affecting the state’s health system after a year of devastating pandemic-related effects.
A final May economic forecast will be released towards the end of session, and that will serve as the final piece of the puzzle for budget writers in the drive to end the legislative session in late June.
And, from me, again, why does all this matter to “regular” Oregonians? Well, what state government does with “its” money affects nearly every taxpayer, including the possibility of the “kicker” being in play.
So, with me, pay attention to how all this sifts and sorts its way through the last three months of the current legislative session, for it could affect you directly.