This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write. I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf. The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie. And it is where you want to be on a golf course.
I found myself wondering this morning about the coming session of the Oregon Legislature, which starts officially on or about February 1, 2023 and runs through the end of June.
As a former state lobbyist, my thoughts went to what issues Democrats and Republicans will advance in the session.
I could imagine some of them, given what happened along the recent campaign trail. But I also was not sure.
Then, I went on-line to the website of my former client, Oregon Public Broadcasting (OPB), and got a look at prospects.
OPB remains one of the best journalistic outfits going and one central feature is a program called “Think Out Loud,” moderated by Dave Miller.
Early December interviews with soon-to-be Speaker of the Oregon House, Dan Rayfield, and soon-to-be Minority Leader in the Oregon Senate, Tim Knopp, produced the issue summary that appears below. The results, to be sure, are a bit general, but still a helpful early look.
And, of course, as this blog headline notes, proposals are one thing. Results are another.
But, first, this summary of the make-up of the House and Senate.
Even as former House Speaker Tina Kotek won a spirited three-way contest to be Oregon’s next governor (no Republican has held the state’s highest political office since 1987), Democrats kept their majorities in both the House and Senate. However, they lost supermajorities in both chambers, which means: (a) Democrats cannot pass tax increases on their own as they could in the past; and (b) they’ll need to work with Republicans to find middle ground on various issues.
On the Think Out Loud program, moderator Miller asked both Rayfield and Knopp about the “most urgent issues” facing the state.
Rayfield said this:
“I lump them into three categories. And just as a reminder, we have six months to really accomplish a lot of things. The first one that we heard loud and clear from people in Oregon is that we just need to make things work.
“If you think about housing and homelessness, behavioral health, we have a public defense crisis getting better outcomes in education. We just need to make that stuff work. I think we’ll have some packages during the session that will really start to address those issues.
“We also need to invest in Oregonians. They’re our biggest asset. It’s our infrastructure. It is the bread and butter. So, you think about investing in the workforce. We have general workforce shortages, as well as nursing shortages.
“We have shortages in our education side of things. Semiconductors, there’s a tremendous opportunity to bring billions of dollars to the state and really create family wage jobs into the future.
“And, then the third category is strengthening our democracy. Thinking about campaign finance reform, voters overwhelmingly support this. We have to get this done. There’s ways to improve our ethics and build trust within the government. I think that this is more important than ever.
“I think there’s ways to reform our electoral system, changing the way we elect candidates perhaps through ‘rank choice’ voting. I think there’s a responsibility that we have as elective leaders to build a culture of respect in the Legislature, especially as we see a lot of the discomfort and frustration that you see on the federal level that all of us have with the government. I think there’s an opportunity for us to lead to build a culture of respect.
Here is the way Minority Leader Knopp answered the same question.
“Well, I think this is going to be a budget session and if you talk to people who are low or middle income, they’ve been in recession for the better part of the year. Our economists from the state tell us that the whole state will be in recession within six to twelve months. And as I said, I think a good portion of Oregonians are already having trouble paying for their groceries, their gas, and their rent.
“I think it’s really important that we do what we can in the Legislature to help them with their family budgets. One of the things we can do is return a substantial kicker to those families who have paid taxes – we would say overpaid – and now it’s time for them to get their money back in the form of a stimulus. I’d love to see it go back as a check as quickly as possible. So that’s one item.
“My hope is that the Democrat majorities will work with the Republican minorities all along the way. If they don’t, they’re not likely to have votes for budgets, which could be problematic because, if we’re talking about some budget reductions in areas, then I think that could become problematic for them.
“I think it’s all about prioritization. And I’ve said for the last couple of years that, if you had a program that you just started up, you should consider that a one-time expenditure, whether it was agreed that was the case or not, because you could see that this recession was likely to come. We didn’t know exactly when. But let’s just say that the Biden Administration hasn’t done a lot to help keep us out of recession and probably done more to drive us into one.
“That’s why I think it’ll probably be a little worse than what the state economists are saying. I liken it to the pilot who comes on and tells you that it’s going to be a 15-minute delay whereby they then come on a half hour later and say it’s going to be a half hour delay and you’ve all been on flights where that’s happened. And I feel like we may be in that situation with the economists. They don’t want to over-exaggerate that it’s going to be bad news, but I think it will likely be worse than what’s being portrayed.”
Now, beyond the summary of potential issues, one thing I have noticed in the run-up to the session is the tension in the Senate between Knopp and the Democrat who is scheduled to become Senate President, Rob Wagner.
He will be first new Senate President in 15 years, given that the incumbent, Peter Courtney, is leaving the Legislature.
I know both Knopp and Wagner, having lobbied both before I retired. I found both to be willing to consider, to listen, and then to give me their thoughts.
So, I have been surprised about the tension between the two, even before the session starts.
Here is the way Knopp put it on the OPB program:
“It’s really up to him. The Senate President represents the entire Senate, not just the Senate Democrats. And obviously he comes from a place of being the majority leader (the job he held last session) and being very partisan.
“It is our hope that he will become much more bi-partisan as we move into the 2023 session, but he hasn’t shown that to be true.
“And, as it relates to untrustworthy, many of our members have had issues with him, I would say, being less than accurate on why their bills were dying or what was happening and didn’t like it. There are currently no votes on our side for Wagner as Senate President.
“I’ve been able to talk with him, but we need to have a partner that, when there’s an agreement that’s made, the agreement is honored.”
To react to the entire 2023 Legislature, I use this time-worn phrase, “only time will tell” as to what is accomplished.
Democrats remain in charge everywhere in Salem. Can they work with Republicans? And, can Republicans find a way to be a productive minority.”
For my part, I am glad to be retired, so I won’t have to deal with the process, but will be able to monitor the Legislature from afar.