THINKING ABOUT THE PAST AND THE FUTURE:  DO SO WITH A CLEAR EYE

This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

In the past couple weeks, I have written two blogs on a subject I would describe as “reflecting on the past and looking toward the future.”

I did so because one of my friends, in a recent meeting, contended that things were far worse today than ever before.

Several columnists I read considered that premise and said, “no,” things were bad in the past, too, marked by such issues as “the Great Depression,” the holocaust amid World War II, the Vietnam War, and the political divisions in this country, if not the world.

The point was to say what Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin wrote in a piece today that appeared under this headline:  “Get real and read some history. The past was worse.”

Her introduction:

“Nostalgia is a powerful political tool.  Wielding nostalgia for a bygone era — one that is invariably mischaracterized — is a favorite weapon for fascist movements (Make America Great Again), harking back to a time before their nation was ‘polluted’ by malign forces.

“In the United States, such nostalgia none-too-subtlety appeals to white Christian nationalism.  Even in a more benign form (e.g., “Politics didn’t used to be so mean,” “Remember the days of bipartisanship?”) plays on faulty memories.  If you really go back to study U.S. history, you would find two things:  The past was worse, and conflict has always been the norm.”

Rather than write more about Rubin, I choose here to reprint here her column.

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The past was simply not “better” by any objective standard.  Economically, we were all a lot poorer.  “In 1960, there were roughly 400 vehicles per 1,000 Americans, about half of today’s car ownership rate. In other words, a family in 1960 could afford a car on one income, but today they would have two cars,” Matthew Yglesias wrote.  

Tom Nichols has written extensively on the politics of false memory. (“Times are always bad. Nothing gets better. And the past 50 years have not been a temporary economic purgatory but a permanent hell, if only the elites would be brave enough to peer through the gloom and see it all for what it is,” he wrote. “This obsession with decline is one of the myths surrounding postindustrial democracy that will not die.”)

Crime was higher by a lot in the 1970s.  Poverty, child mortality, deaths from virtually any major disease, workplace injuries, high school dropout rates, etc., were all much worse in the 1950s.  Also, kids got polio, Jim Crow was in full swing, gays had to be in the closet and no one had cellphones, home computers or microwave ovens.  Very few people had air conditioning or could afford to fly.

You might rightly decry income inequality today.  However, since 2007, income inequality has been on the decline.  The 1930s?  The Great Depression.  You prefer the 1940s?  World war.  Then came McCarthyism and the Cold War.

The 1960s? Riots, assassinations, the Vietnam War.  You get the point.  Though those who rail against modernity, urbanity, pluralism, tolerance, and personal freedom in service of an authoritarian perch would like to turn back the clock, a perusal of history suggests now is the best time to be alive.

And that brings us to the myth of bi-partisanship, unity, and frictionless politics. From the get-go, politics in America was vicious.  The Post’s review of H.W. Brands’s latest book, “Founding Partisans: Hamilton, Madison, Jefferson, Adams and the Brawling Birth of American Politics,” reminded us that “they all hastened to assume the worst of one another:  Jefferson, watching the government amass power and assume state debt, concluded that Hamilton’s Federalists were royalists and corrupt financiers who had been plotting ‘to betray the people’ since independence.”

In turn, “Federalists, conversely, thought Republicans ideologically deranged to the point of near-treason.  Blind infatuation with a hostile (and anarchic) France, faith in state sovereignty, Luddite opinions on public debt — all of these seemed like symptoms of a deeper mania among Jefferson’s followers.” Consider whether this sounds familiar.

And, so the knives came out quick and often.  The parties established mouthpieces in the media to lambaste one another.  Gossip about the personal lives of leaders was a favorite topic, with Hamilton and Jefferson providing good grist for the rumor mill.  Come Independence Day, 1788, celebratory toasts by one party included wishes of “never-dying remorse, pain, poverty and contempt” for their opponents.

Fast forward to the mid-19th century: The country is torn asunder by slavery, a bloody civil war follows, military occupation (Reconstruction) of the South provides a brief interlude and then strict racial segregation returns.

You can flip through the history of presidential insults, devastating feuds and congressional violence. None of this suggests we ever enjoyed a sustained halcyon period of unity. To be certain, we had brief interludes when World War II united the country and when the ideological gaps between the parties were not as vast.

However, we “got things done” mostly when one party (in modern times, usually Republicans) got wiped out in elections, leaving Democrats to construct the New Deal and the Great Society. Republicans vilified Democrats every step of the way (even testing out a coup against Franklin D. Roosevelt).

What we have not had before is a president who rejected democracy, attempted to retain power by force and wound up indicted on 91 criminal counts. So yes, four-times-indicted Donald Trump was worse than every president who preceded him.  The resulting venom, violence, and loss of faith in elections have taken a heavy toll on our democracy.

Where does that leave us? The past (especially the immediate past president!) was infinitely worse in myriad ways. (This is not to say that we don’t have our problems, from climate change to homelessness to suicide; we do, however, have more resources and knowledge to address these.)

Conflict and even violence have been a constant presence in American life. But so, too, has been progress, albeit halting at times, toward greater freedom and prosperity. We generally are living healthier, longer lives. If nothing else, the 21st century is evidence that we are a resilient people.

So, as we look forward to 2024 be wary:  Nostalgia, especially nostalgia for a time of less freedom, less opportunity, and fewer rights for many of us, is the stuff of snake-oil salesmen.  Instead, bet on American progress.

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AND THIS CONCLUSION FROM ME:  Rubin is right on at least this count:  She calls out a presidential candidate – yes, Donald Trump – who campaigns against democracy and, incredibly, is under 91 criminal indictments.

And, another right:  She encourages all of us to find a way to look on the bright side and “bet on American progress.”

Finally, I make this point on the last day of 2023.  Tonight, we head into another year, 2024.  Let’s work to do our part to make it a good year, even if we don’t like some of what we see and hear.

LOOKING ON THE BRIGHT SIDE

This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

This is the second in a two-part blog series which asks two questions – (a) are things worse today than ever before (that was the first one), and (b) is it possible to look on the bright side (this is the second one)

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A Washington Post story made this point the other day:  “These gifts have nothing to do with holidays.  They’re about humanity.”

The writer, Petula Dvorak, started her story this way:

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“Miss Petula, there’s someone in the lobby here for you,” our security guard, Robin, said when she called up to my desk in our old 15th Street building.

“She has a lot, and I’m talkin’ a LOT of, um, diapers,” Robin said, a little uneasily.  “Can you come deal with this?”

“This is a story about the Christmas spirit — that bursting, full-hearted, pine-spiced, jingle-bell mood — that we’re all soaking in right now.

“Except that these diapers, this beautiful, thoughtful gift, came in April.”

Dvorak went on to cite other instances of neighbor-helping-neighbor which serves as a good contrast to what we see in the media every day – wars, rumors of wars, killing innocent civilians, homeless persons walking the streets, often amid bitter cold, and, then worse, Donald Trump issuing more tripe about immigrants polluting America.

On the latter, I cannot help but state this fact:  All of us, including Trump, are immigrants who have forebears who made a way to have a life in a free country, or are first-generation immigrants ourselves. 

Now, Trump would propose to make into the United States into an autocracy that would not tolerate anyone who was not White.

Okay, enough about Trump.  More about the bright side.

Dvorak continued her story:

“I had just written a column about Juan Jordan, one of the few single fathers living in what was once the shame of D.C.’s shelter system — an abandoned hospital that housed nearly 600 homeless children and their families — with his one-year-old daughter after he was laid off.

“Not only did readers send checks and gift cards for him, but several also showed up in our lobby with boxes of baby clothes, a playpen and this — a giant duffel bag of disposable diapers.  Because every parent knows how crucial and pricey these little things are.”

Why did this occur, Dvorak asks.

Then, she answers her own question:

“Because beyond politics and race, socio-economics, nationality, sexuality, and religion — the topics that occupy so much of our media diet — our humanity connects us through our struggles, our dreams, and our triumphs year-round.

“That human connection brings out the best in people.”

Plus, this additional story from Dvorak:  

“I’m so proud to contribute to this young man’s future.  I can’t think of a better investment to make than in America’s youth,” wrote Robert Scott Bass, in a message accompanying a $1,000 donation to the GoFundMe a reader set help send Kamari Felton to college.

“I wrote about Felton this summer, after he’d been accepted to Frostburg State University and was about to move out of a homeless shelter and into a dorm.  Then, all of his funding was yanked out from under him.

“The university and government officials finally got their acts together and restored his funding after we banged on in this column about the mess.  But in the meantime, in the swampy malaise of a D.C. summer — with no holiday cheer or spirit of Christmas to move them — readers raised $42,900 that won’t just get him to college; it also will help keep him there.”

So, to those who might say “things are worse today than ever before,” it’s not true. 

On one hand, there have been terrible times in other parts of our history, but, if you take time to look on the bright side, you’ll find stories of acts of human kindness and consideration that will give you a positive lease on life.

Further, at this Christmas season, it is good to reflect on the “reason for the season” – that Christ came to earth about 2,000 years ago to give us a way to have a relationship with Him and to value other persons as “real persons” worthy of love and connection.

Which makes bad things on this earth seem far less momentous.

HOW BAD ARE THINGS TODAY?  NOT SO BAD, I THINK

This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

This is the first in a two-part blog series that focuses on two questions –

(a) how bad are things today, and

(b) is there a way to look on the bright side

I participated in a group discussion recently where the leader uttered this phrase:  “Things are worse today than ever before.”

The leader, a friend, made this point by referring to all kinds of violence and unrest roiling our country and the world.

But, was he right?

I don’t think so, for at least two reasons:

  • First, if we look back on history, there have been tough times in our country and the world, perhaps worse than what is happening today.  For the U.S., think only of “the depression,” which my age group did not live through.  Or, the Vietnam War years.  I did life through that.  Or, the Holocaust in World War II.
  • Second, the influence of the media – especially social media – is so pervasive today that we know much more than our forebears did in their lifetimes.

Here is more information on both reasons, which I provide only for context, not necessarily to make any larger point.

WHAT DOES HISTORY TELL US?:  Here, I had to look no further than a column by Karl Rove that appeared in the Wall Street Journal.

His name is not one I would logically associate with a look-back at history because he has made a name for himself, not in that field, but in political consulting, sometimes in controversial ways.

Still, his column resonated.  So here are excerpts.

“America is deeply divided. Our politics is broken, marked by anger, contempt, and distrust.  We must acknowledge that reality but not lose historical perspective.  It’s bad now, but it’s been worse before — and not only during the Civil War.

“Let’s look backward and start with the mid-1960s to early ’70s.  The nation was bitterly divided over civil rights, the “sexual revolution” and an increasingly unpopular war in Southeast Asia.

“The just and peaceful civil-rights protests of the 1950s and early ’60s were often met with state-sanctioned violence.  Then Harlem exploded in 1964, followed by a riot in Philadelphia.  Watts went up in flames in 1965; Chicago, Cleveland, and San Francisco the next year.”

Rove went on to name other tough times in our history, such as the depression I mentioned earlier, plus the Civil War (if any war can be called “civil”).

THE RISE OF SOCIAL MEDIA:  Look only so far as Facebook to understand the influence of social media.

For the record, I quit using Facebook about a year ago, but it was then the largest social media platform in the world, with 2.4 billion users in 2019.

Minus one:  Me.

From Google:

  • Other social media platforms, including YouTube and WhatsApp, also had over one billion users each.
  • These numbers are huge – in 2019, there were 7.7 billion people worldwide, with at least 3.5 billion on-line.  This means social media platforms were used by one in three people worldwide and more than two-thirds of all Internet users.
  • Social media has changed the world.  The rapid and vast adoption of these technologies is changing how we find partners, access information from the news, and organize to demand political change.

And, statistics such as these indicate that, whether we like it or not, we have the ability to know more today than ever before.  Of course, some of what we know is fake or contrived, but, still, we live in an information age.

So, back to the basic question.  Are things worse today than ever before? 

I say the answer is “no,” even though all of us, as Americans, need to be vigilant so we contribute positively to society, not negatively.

And, without being a Poly-Anna, we need to take time to look on the bright side in our world (which I summarize in my next blog).  If we do, we often would like what we see – neighbor helping neighbor, charitable organizations doing good work in communities, solid citizens working on such issues as homelessness, and other examples.

So, recognize that there are problems in the world, but also positive developments.  Be part of that positivity.

TRUMP CASES CRASHING INTO SUPREME COURT COULD RE-SHAPE 2024 ELECTION

This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

Does anyone have the head of a pin available? 

I ask because that’s what I would need to house all I know about the recent decision by the State of Colorado Supreme Court to ban Donald Trump from the presidential election ballot in their state because he incited a riot at the U.S. Capitol.

The basic decision threatens to roil – there, don’t you like that word as much as I do? – the 2024 election.  And, now, it has resulted in threatened violence against the judges who wrote that decision.

On one hand, the ruling goes against Donald Trump.

On the other hand, there are early indications that the ruling could have a reverse spin effect:  That is, it could redound to Trump’s credit for either of two reasons:  (a) Trump, ever the narcissist, will contend the ruling indicates that power structures are out to get him and he remains a victim, or (b) the case is not legally crystal clear and the U.S. Supreme Court may have no choice but to overrule it.

The issues are complicated enough that I am not able to understand all of them, residing as I do in the cheap seats out West.

So, even on this Christmas eve day, when there probably are better things to do, I quote below from the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and the New York Times to provide background on the Colorado case, which is nothing if not monumental.

FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES:  It has been obvious for months that politics and the law were going to bump into one another in the 2024 campaign, given the double role that former President Donald J. Trump has been playing as a criminal defendant and leading Republican candidate.

But in a way that few expected, that awkward bump has turned into a head-on collision.  It now seems clear that the courts — especially the Supreme Court — could dramatically shape the contours of the election.

The nine justices have already agreed to review the scope of an obstruction statute central to the federal indictment accusing Trump of plotting to overturn the 2020 election.  And they could soon become entangled in both his efforts to dismiss those charges with sweeping claims of executive immunity and in a bid to rid himself of a gag order restricting his attacks on Jack Smith, the special counsel in charge of the case.

…a number of the issues the court is now confronting could drastically affect the timing of the proceedings against Trump, the scope of the charges he should face or his status as a candidate, with potentially profound effects on his chances of winning the election.  

“In this cycle, the Supreme Court is likely to play an even larger role than in Bush v. Gore,” said David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, a non-partisan group dedicated to improving election administration.

“It’s not just the issue of whether or not Donald Trump engaged in insurrection, which would disqualify him from holding the presidency under the 14th Amendment,” Becker said, “but also issues related to presidential immunity and criminal proceedings in general.”

In fact, there are so many moving parts in the overlapping cases that Trump is facing that it is all but impossible to predict which issues might get taken up, how the justices will rule on the questions they consider and what effects their decisions might have as they flow downstream to the lower courts that are handling the former president’s four criminal cases and his many civil proceedings.

It is important to remember something else:  Trump is interested in more than winning arguments in court.  From the start, he and his lawyers have pursued a parallel strategy of trying to delay his cases for as long as possible — ideally until after the election is decided.

FROM THE WALL STREET JOURNAL:  The Journal wrote under this headline:  “What Is Insurrection?  Trump Puts Once Obscure Questions Before Courts.”

Donald Trump’s efforts to stay in power after losing the White House are forcing judges all the way up to the Supreme Court to confront obscure legal questions that long seemed largely academic but now carry big consequences.

For one, what counts as insurrection against the U.S.?

Ratified in the wake of the Civil War, Section 3 of the 14th Amendment was enacted to keep former Confederate officials from gaining power during Reconstruction.  Congress last invoked the law in 1919, when it refused to seat Victor Berger, a socialist accused of having given aid and comfort to Germany during World War I. 

But last year a state court in New Mexico used it to remove a participant in the January 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol from an elected position as county commissioner.

Soon liberal groups, supported by some conservative opponents of Trump, unleashed a wave of lawsuits against the former president, asserting that his encouragement of efforts to block the peaceful transfer of power to President Biden amounted to an insurrection and disqualified him from running for president in 2024.

The Supreme Court justices could take a range of approaches to deciding the case.

On appeal, Trump will likely argue that Section 3 doesn’t apply to the office of the presidency, since it refers to other federal roles, including Members of Congress and electors, as well as to “officers of the United States,” but not specifically to the president.  

Trump also is expected to argue that Section 3 can’t be enforced by state election officials. The former president’s lawyers have said further legislation by Congress is required to make Section 3 enforceable.

Another consideration will likely be on the justices’ minds in deciding on the case:  Whether, as all of Trump’s rivals for the Republican nomination have suggested, it subverts democracy to have a court rather than voters decide on who they can choose as president. 

AND MORE FROM THE WALL JOURNAL EDITORIAL BOARD:  Under this headline – “The Folly of Colorado’s Trump Disqualification” – the writers said this:

The decision by four Colorado judges to bar Donald Trump from the state presidential ballot is an ugly turn that augurs nothing but trouble for American law and democracy.  Even if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns the ruling, as it probably will, the Colorado decision will confirm for millions of Americans that Trump’s opponents will do everything possible to deny them their democratic choice.

Anti-Trump lawyers have been peddling that Trump can be disqualified under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.  Colorado’s 4-3 Supreme Court majority is the first court to buy the argument, and in the process it has blundered into the middle of the 2024 election.  The four Democrat justices join special counsel Jack Smith and New York and Georgia prosecutors in providing ironic assistance to Trump in gaining the GOP presidential nomination, and maybe the White House.

The court said Trump is disqualified under the post-Civil War 14th Amendment because he inspired and “engaged” in an “insurrection or rebellion” against the U.S. that took place on January 6, 2021.  They rely largely on evidence compiled by the House January 6 special committee.

Trump’s behavior after the 2020 election through Jan. 6 was disgraceful, and it is one of several reasons not to trust him with so much power again.  It was an attempt to obstruct the counting of electoral votes.  But the evidence is unpersuasive that this amounted to an insurrection or rebellion under the statutory or constitutional meaning of those terms.

FROM THE WASHINGTON POST:  Even the more liberal Post got into the act under this headline:   “Should courts throw Trump off the ballot? Not so fast.”

Never mind whether Donald Trump should be president a second time:  The U.S. Supreme Court now looks likely to determine whether he even can.  The justices must do so, mindful that the legal issues involved are murky — and that the implications of a court determining whether a candidate may participate in a democracy’s elections are substantial.

Obvious as this analysis might seem to citizens appalled at the then-commander in chief’s conduct on Jan. 6, 2021, the law is not so clear.  The court had to answer “yes” to a vexing series of questions:  Does Section 3 apply to the presidency?  The answer here is probably “yes.”

The provision doesn’t list that office even as it does list others — but the Colorado court majority found the idea that Section 3 should exclude the most powerful position of all implausible.  

Harder still is the question of whether Congress needs to pass legislation for Section 3 to take effect.  

Yet these puzzles are relatively mundane compared with the case’s most consequential conundrum:  Whether Trump really did engage in insurrection.  

THIS FROM ME:  Now, this conclusion.  I avoid all the to-ing and fro-ing over what federal election law says.  I simply go to what Trump did on and around January 6.  His conduct compels the truth that he not be allowed to be president again, either by court decision or vote.

THE DEPARTMENT OF “JUST SAYING” IS OPEN AGAIN

This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

This is one of four departments I run as director with a free hand to manage as I see fit.

The others are the Department of Pet Peeves, the Department of Inquiring Minds Want to Know, and the Department of Good Quotes Worth Remembering.

So, “just saying:”

ON RUDY GULIANI:  His fall from grace has been remarkable and, further, he has done the deed to himself.

After a stint as the “nation’s mayor” for the solid way he responded to the 911 attack, Guliani “extinguished” himself as a pawn for Donald Trump.

And, now, in the facing mounting civil judgments against him, including the most recent $148 million, he has declared bankruptcy. 

To me, just saying, this is not just financial bankruptcy.  It is mental bankruptcy.

ON THE WORLD’S LARGEST CRUISE SHIP, ICON OF THE SEAS:  Just think about the statistics for a moment…

• Icon of the Seas can hold 5,610 passengers.
• It’s nearly 1,200 feet long.
• It has more than five times the tonnage of the Titanic.
• It has more than a dozen decks.
• There’s a pool for every day of the week.
• It has the biggest water park on the water.
• There are 40-plus places to eat and drink yourself silly.

Just saying, I told my wife not to book us on this behemoth.

AND MORE ON CRUISING:  Just saying that a story in the Wall Street Journal under this headline – “The 3-year cruise was canceled.  Enter the 3.5-year cruise” – is not for me.

Here’s more from the Journal:

“Sailing on the Villa Vie Odyssey during its first circumnavigation will start at $115,789 before taxes and fees

“About a month after Life at Sea Cruises canceled its debut three-year voyage because it couldn’t secure a ship, another company has done just that.  Villa Vie Residences, which plans to sail the world in 3.5 years, announced last week it has purchased a 924-passenger ship that is expected to launch in May.

“It’s a continuous cruise that will really never stop,” said Mikael Petterson, Villa Vie Residences’ founder and CEO.  “Our goal is to make this more of a lifestyle and residence, more than your typical cruise.”

So be it.  Just saying, not for me.

ON HARVARD’S PRESIDENT:  Claudine Gay got herself in trouble first when she appeared before a Congressional committee and did not answer well when antisemitism came up as a subject. 

But her Board of Directors supported her.

Then, she got caught in an increasing number of plagiarisms in “her” writing.  So, just saying, it appears likely to me that those lapses may end up costing her the top job at Harvard. 

Just saying it’s hard to treat the president any different than Harvard students who, if caught plagiarizing, will suffer a penalty.

ABOUT WRITING WELL

This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

It will not surprise those who know me to hear that I enjoyed a recent column in the New York Times by Frank Bruni that emphasized the importance of this craft:  Writing well.

To me, the ability to write well indicates the ability to think well.

Or, take reverse – thinking well can translate to writing well.

So, do I write well?

The answer is, sometimes, but try to do so all the time.  I just don’t succeed every minute.

In Bruni’s column, early on, he emphasizes two attributes that aid readability — the appropriate use of punctuation, and keeping paragraphs short.  On the former, I agree, which is one reason why I employ the use of commas more than most – they aid readability. 

When you see commas, just pause.  Then, move on.

And short paragraphs?  Yes.

Rather than dwell more on my thoughts here, I choose to reprint Bruni’s column because – get this – it is written well.  [A summary of Bruni’s varied background appears below.}

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A.I. or no A.I., it pays to write — and to write well

When I go through students’ papers and flag the misplaced modifiers, note the clichés or explain that a 15-sentence paragraph is less approachable than a five-sentence one, I sometimes ask myself a question that the students who get those papers back from me perhaps ponder as well: Does it really matter?

Is skillful writing a prerequisite for accomplishment? For contentment? Even for communication?  You can make your point without punctuating it properly.  The most potent ideas may well survive the most flaccid prose.

Besides which, you can now generate prose without writing at all. Wait, scratch that:  You do need to fashion the prompt that you’re giving ChatGPT — the parameters of the composition you want, the objectives, the guidelines.  But artificial intelligence will do the rest.  It will sweat the structure, the syntax, the semicolons.

When I prattle on about dangling participles and the like, some students hear a sad evangelist for a silly religion.  I can tell.  Even a few of my faculty colleagues look askance at me.

One couldn’t understand my frustration with a student who had toggled repeatedly and randomly between “and” and “&” in an essay. Didn’t the student’s meaning come across well enough?

I suppose so.  But it could have come across a whole lot better, and that’s one of the arguments for writing well — for taking the time and summoning the focus to do so.  Good writing burnishes your message.  It burnishes the messenger, too.

You may be dazzling on your feet, an extemporaneous ace, thanks to the brilliant thoughts that pinball around your brain.  There will nonetheless be times when you must pin them down and put them in a long email.  Or a medium-length email.  Or a memo.  Or, hell, a Slack channel.

The clarity, coherence, precision and even verve with which you do that — achieving a polish and personality distinct from most of what A.I. spits out — will have an impact on the recipients of that missive, coloring their estimation of you and advancing or impeding your goals.

If you’re honest with yourself, you know that, because you know your own skeptical reaction when people send you error-clouded dreck.  You also know the way you perk up when they send its shining opposite.  And while the epigrammatic cleverness or audiovisual genius of a viral TikTok or Instagram post has the potential to shape opinion and motivate behavior, there are organizations and institutions whose internal communications and decision-making aren’t conducted via social media. GIFs, memes and emojis don’t apply.

When my friend Molly Worthen, a history professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and a frequent contributor to Times Opinion, took the measure of the influential diplomat Charles Hill for her 2006 book “The Man on Whom Nothing Was Lost,” she noted that a principal reason for his enormous behind-the-scenes influence was his dexterity with the written word.  He took great notes.  He produced great summaries.  He made great arguments — on paper, not just on the fly.

Worthen noted in her book that “transmitting ideas into written words is hard, and people do not like to do it.”  As a result, someone who performs that task gladly, quickly, and nimbly “in most cases ends up the default author, the quarterback to whom others start to turn, out of habit, for the play.”

Good writing announces your seriousness, establishing you as someone capable of caring and discipline.  But it’s not just a matter of show:  The act of wrestling your thoughts into logical form, distilling them into comprehensible phrases and presenting them as persuasively and accessibly as possible is arguably the best test of those very thoughts.  It either exposes them as flawed or affirms their merit and, in the process, sharpens them.

Writing is thinking, but it’s thinking slowed down — stilled — to a point where dimensions and nuances otherwise invisible to you appear.  That’s why so many people keep journals.  They want more than just a record of what’s happening in their lives.  They want to make sense of it.

The subtitle of “The Notebook,” a new non-fiction book by Roland Allen, is “A History of Thinking on Paper.”  In a recent review of it in The Guardian, Sukhdev Sandhu noted that Allen “points to evidence that maintaining a notebook with pen and paper is best for processing and retaining information.”

I think you can take the “pen and paper” out of the equation — replace them with keystrokes in a Google Doc or Microsoft Word file — and the point largely holds.  That kind of writing, too, forces you to concentrate or to elaborate. A tossed-off text message doesn’t.  Neither do most social media posts.  They have as much to do with spleen as with brain.

What place do the traditional rules of writing and the conventional standards for it have in all this?  Does purposeful, ruminative, or cathartic writing demand decent grammar, some sense of pace, some glimmer of grace?

Maybe not.  You can write in a manner that’s comprehensible and compelling only or mostly to you.  You can choose which dictums to follow and which to flout.  You’re still writing.

But show me someone who writes correctly and ably — and who knows that — and I’ll show you someone who probably also writes more.  Such people’s awareness of their agility and their confidence pave the way.  Show me someone who has never been pressed to write well or given the tutelage and tools to do so and I’ll show you someone who more often than not avoids it and, in avoiding it, is deprived of not only its benefits but also its pleasures.

Yes, pleasures.  I’ve lost count of the times when I’ve praised a paragraph, sentence or turn of phrase in a student’s paper and that student subsequently let me know that the passage had in fact been a great source of pride, delivering a jolt of excitement upon its creation.  We shouldn’t devalue that feeling.  

We should encourage — and teach — more people to experience it.

**********

Bruni joined The New York Times in 1995 and has ranged broadly across its pages.  He has been both a White House correspondent and the chief restaurant critic.  As a staff writer for The Times Magazine, he profiled J.J. Abrams and a health-obsessed billionaire who planned to live to 125; as the Rome bureau chief, he kept tabs on Pope John Paul II, and Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

“IS HE WORTHY?”:  A MAJESTIC HYMN OF PRAISE

This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

I have written before about how Christian hymns use words and melodies that often capture my mind and heart.

That’s even though I cannot sing a lick.  Thus, words – lyrics – matter.

So it was that I came across a story in the Wall Street Journal that touted the lyrics and melodies of a relatively new Christian song that asks a question, “Is He Worthy?” Then, it provides a quick and sure answer, “He is.”

A very appropriate hymn for this Christmas season.

Here is the sub-head for the Journal story:

“Written by Andrew Peterson and Ben Shive, the worship song has become a staple in Christian churches around the world thanks to its musical sweep and conversational, call-and-response format.”

The Journal’s writer, Barbara Jepson, regularly wrote about classical concerts, recordings, and musicians for the Journal from 1983 until her retirement last year.  This time, in retirement, she wrote about the song, “Is He Worthy.”

Her story started this way:

“More than five decades ago, the spiritual awakening known as the ‘Jesus Movement’ swept through the U.S., bringing hippie culture into evangelical Christian churches, and impacting the sound and feel of worship music.

“Guitars, electronic keyboards and drum sets — previously unthinkable at Sunday morning services — were introduced with far-reaching effect:  Contemporary worship bands now co-exist with organs and choirs at many churches or have replaced them altogether.

“And a sizable body of vibrant praise songs and anthems influenced by folk, country, rock, or gospel has been created.  The lyrics may incorporate poetic imagery and mantra-like repetitions.  The Christian belief in the second coming of Christ is a recurring theme.”

She wrote that “one of the most notable achievements in this still-evolving praise genre is the song ‘Is He Worthy.’”

Released in 2018 on Peterson’s album “Resurrection Letters, Volume I,” which Shive produced, it was quickly copied by Christian mega-star Chris Tomlin.  His version reached No. 12 on Billboard’s “Hot Christian Songs” chart in May 2019 after a 26-week run.

According to Christian Copyright Licensing International, the work has been on its “Top 100 List” for nearly four consecutive years, based upon usage data from churches in North America, the U.K., and Australia.

More from Jepson:

  • Like the great hymns of the past, “Is He Worthy?” possesses an ideal pairing of text and music that enhances the worship experience.  Only 4 1/2 minutes in length, the song nonetheless has a majestic sweep to it, with each section flowing seamlessly into the next.
  • Although some 21st-century additions to the global repertoire birthed by the “Jesus Movement” have an irksome sameness, “Is He Worthy?” is distinctive in its structure and imagination.
  • Inspired by the spoken Anglican liturgy, with its prescribed readings and congregational responses, Peterson uses a question-and-answer format in much of the song.  Tomlin has called “Is He Worthy?” a “game-changer for the church” because of this “conversational approach between the singer and the congregation.”

The question-answer format goes like this.

After an introduction of chords on the piano, a worship leader or soloist poses the first of several questions:  “Do you feel the world is broken?”  The congregation or choir answers, “We do.”

In similar fashion, the second verse continues the dialogue: “Is all creation groaning?”  The answer:  “It is.”

Now, the questions begin shifting from earthbound perceptions to biblically-grounded hope:  “Is a new creation coming?”  “It is.” “Is the glory of the Lord to be the light within our midst?”  “It is.”

Next, Jepson adds, “comes an engaging chorus, sung by all, that moves into the heavenly realms.  To underline the change, the rolling piano accompaniment of the first two verses is replaced by hymn-like chords.  

“The lyrics are drawn from the apostle John’s vision of a dramatic scene that takes place before the throne of God in the fifth chapter of the Biblical book of Revelation.  God is holding a sacred scroll with seven seals.  John weeps because no one is found worthy to open it.  But, one of 24 elders present, informs John that the slain Lamb of God — a reference to the crucified Jesus — is able to do so.

“Is anyone worthy?  Is anyone whole?  Is anyone able to break the seal and open the scroll?  The Lion of Judah, who conquered the grave, He is David’s root and the Lamb who died to ransom the slave.  Is He Worthy?  Is He Worthy? Of all blessing and honor and glory?  Is He worthy of this? He is.”

In the third verse, the questions highlight such themes as the enduring love of God and eternal security for believers.  Pounding drums punctuate the music during the repeat of the chorus and the ensuing bridge, helping to raise the song’s emotional pitch a notch:  “From every people and tribe, every nation and tongue,  He has made us a kingdom and priests to God, To reign with the Son.”

And this conclusion from Jepsen:

“This leads to an exhilarating conclusion, as the lyrics repeatedly affirm the worthiness of Christ. ‘Is He Worthy?’ reminds followers of Jesus that, because of what he accomplished by his death and resurrection, our earthly bodies and broken world will ultimately be made new.”

I have often thought that song and hymns can draw us effectively to Christ if they are written well and put to music well.

For me, that is true.

It would be hard for me to cite my favorite song or hymn of the Christian church.  Possible, but hard.

As artificial as the question is, my favorite probably is a hymn, “When I Survey the Wondrous Cross.”  The words lead me to acknowledge again that I have Christ because of what He has done, not what I have earned.

“Is He Worthy?” accomplishes the same objective.  

THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOCIAL COMMITMENTS AND POLITICAL ACTION

This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

The comparison in this blog headline arose because of two current issues for me – higher education’s so-called commitment to “diversity and inclusion” and, of all things, an environmentally-sound winery here in Oregon which my wife and I joined a few weeks ago.

Why do these different issues underline this critical distinction?

  • For higher education, it is one thing to be committed, ethically and morally, to diversity and inclusion.  It is quite another to sign up for a political movement which strains or perhaps ridicules those who don’t sign up for the movement.
  • As for the winery, the Brooks Winery in Yamhill County, it is committed to environmental way of growing of grapes that are harvested to make wine, so much so that it recently won an international award for its commitments.  Again, not an award for joining a political movement; an award for on-the ground environmental stewardship.

Here’s more background.

The acronym, DEI, refers to “diversity, equity, and inclusion,” which seeks to promote the fair treatment and full participation of all people, particularly groups that have historically been under-represented or subject to discrimination on the basis of their identity or disability.

That’s laudable as a commitment. 

What runs afoul of my sensibilities is when DEI becomes a political organization which demands salutes and, if you don’t give those salutes, describes you as an enemy.

The same can be said of the “environment lobby.”  If you don’t salute its political agenda, you are an enemy.

A week or so ago in London, The Drinks Business (which is the European top wine and spirits magazine) awarded Brooks the “Green Company of the Year.”

Nominees competed from around the globe.  The criteria all were related to “sustainable efforts” in winemaking with a focus on and actions in the last 12 months.

Good for Brooks!  Its award is for real, down-to-earth work.

I saw the distinction between commitments and politics play out when I worked as a lobbyist for about 25 years.

Social commitments can be good and beneficial. 

When they become political movements, they lose, for me, most of their luster.

So, I say, salute the commitments, not the political movement.

THE DEPARTMENT OF GOOD QUOTES WORTH REMEMBERING IS OPEN AGAIN

This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

This is one of four departments I run with a free hand to manage as I – and only I – see fit.

The others are the Department of Pet Peeves, the Department of Inquiring Minds Want to Know, and the Department of “Just Saying.”

So, here more good quotes – and I start with a special one.

SAM SKILLERN, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, SALEM LEADERSHIP FOUNDATION:  “Two thousand years ago, things were pretty rough in the Middle East.  The Roman Empire was in charge, and it was brutal.  Even though the Romans allowed the Jewish culture and systems to remain in place, they ruled with the proverbial iron fist.  Royalty and religious leaders had to kowtow. 

“Merchants endured a harsh economy.  Families worked hard to eke out an existence.  The average man was nothing but a peon; women and slaves were nothing.  Unspeakable cruelty, including crucifixion, was the norm.
 
“There was sharp political and theological divide, with an underground revolt smoldering.  Cultural and ethnic tensions due to nationality, class, and religion.  Concerns about immigration and refugees.  Hope for something … or someone … to break into the chaos and bring peace.
 
“You know the story.  It wasn’t the conquering adult warrior many expected.  It was a baby, entering into our human existence to walk with us and show us the way.  It was a miraculous breakthrough that changed world history forever, something that has been widely documented even outside Christian literature.
 
“As we consider the times we’re in … are we open to a breakthrough?  At this time of year, do we only look back and remember one momentous occasion?  Or, in our hearts, do we invite and await a profound 2023 breakthrough?  Emmanuel, God with us.  An epiphany, manifestation of Christ.  These concepts are not new; they have been in play since the manger.  But do we perceive them?  Especially in times like these?

COMMENT:  As usual, Skillern asks probing questions as he has done for years at the helm of the Leadership Foundation, which works hard and effectively to bring various interests to solve community problems.

At this time of year, Christmas, Skillern points us to the real reason for the season – Christ’s birth and what that means for us if we accept His free gift.

FROM WASHINGTON POST EDITORIAL WRITERS:  Under this headline —  “The Supreme Court should not allow Trump to play the justice system” – the writers said this: 

“The essential moment in Jack Smith’s 2020 election obstruction case against Donald Trump might have arrived — and, oddly, the substance of the charges has nothing to do with it.

“The special counsel this week filed a motion asking the Supreme Court to speedily review the former president’s claims that he is immune from prosecution, rather than allow an appeals court to do so first.  The strategy is gutsy, but it might be necessary to get the case to trial before the general election — and that is a wholly legitimate goal for Trump’s prosecutor.

“By ignoringthat timing in a case with the peaceful transition of power at its heart, the courts would allow themselves to be manipulated by a politician using his status as a candidate to avoid accountability.”

COMMENT:  That’s the Trump strategy – delay, forever.  And, then if, perish the thought, he becomes president again, he’ll simply pardon himself by instructing the Justice Department to stop.

FROM ATLANTIC MAGAZINE STAFF WRITER TOM NICHOLS:  “The public’s cultish fascination with celebrity is not a new problem, but it’s getting worse.  Back in 1992, I was a young professor living in New Hampshire.  I was teaching political science back in those days, but I had several years of practical experience from working in city, state, and federal politics.

“Nonetheless, I was unprepared for the madness that settles over the Granite State during the presidential primaries.  I went to several events, and I started to worry about how dysfunctionally Americans regard the office of the chief executive.

“As various contenders — including the right-wing populist Pat Buchanan — made their way through the state, I got to hear voters directly addressing the candidates.  As far as I could tell, they had one overriding message for the people contending to be the Leader of the Free World at a time of tremendous global instability, and it sounded something like this:

“I am an unemployed pipe fitter from Laconia, and I would like to know when you’re going to get me a job.

Trump has played to both sides of the Superman/daddy concept, encouraging a cult of personality that endows one man with saintly powers—a man who never has to deliver, and who can never fail but can only be failed by others.”

COMMENT:  Nichols, a solid writer, makes a prescient case that Americans often place too much faith in the Office of the President.  He or she is not superman.

Trump, however, supports the superman myth because to him – he is the smartest person on the planet – he is always right.  And, no matter what he does as president, if he gets the office again, it will be for his own good.

FROM THE WALL STREET JOURNAL:  “Technology giants strengthened their grip on the top of the annual Management Top 250 ranking of America’s best-run companies.”  For the fourth year running, Miscrosoft was at the top of the list.

“Others in the top five were Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, and IBM in the ranking compiled by researchers at the Drucker Institute, part of Claremont Graduate University. 

“The top five companies scored well across a wide range of measurements, from job satisfaction to supply-chain management to shareholder returns — strengths reflected in their standing in the ranking’s five main components.

COMMENT:  It’s good to be recognized for overall management strengths.  And, from a position far from the action, I think Microsoft deserves the plaudits.

A MAJOR POLITICAL BATTLE IS BREWING IN OREGON:  IT’S OVER AN ISSUE WITH A STRANGE NAME, “THE KICKER LAW”

This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

A major political battle is brewing in Oregon and the debate could go to the heart of what state government means here.

The title is strange:  The so-called “kicker law.”  But, many Oregonians know about it because it has existed for years and often means regular citizens have more money in their pockets.

If you want to read a solid article on this subject, go to the Oregon Public Broadcasting (OPB) website.

There, reporter Dirk VanderHart writes a long story on the law.  His work deserves plaudits as a solid piece of journalism, which, I add, is typical of OPB, the state’s best news and public affairs outlet.

[In the spirit of full disclosure, I was OPB’s lobbyist for more than 10 years in Oregon and my old firm still represents the company.]

Here is the bottom line.  All of us can read all we want about the kicker law and other elements of Oregon state government budgeting, but the issue boils down to this salient point:  Politics is what matters, not intricate tax and budget detail.

From OPB, here is a summary of the kicker law:

“The kicker is an Oregon institution, triggered whenever personal income taxes and other non-corporate revenue streams come in at least 2 per cent higher than state economists predicted when legislators were building a two-year budget.  In those increasingly common cases, all the excess is ‘kicked’ back to taxpayers.

“The law was fashioned in 1979 as a blunt tool to keep state spending in check, but Oregon has never seen anything close to the $5.6 billion refund headed out the door next spring.”

The sheer magnitude of the payout is kick-starting – pardon the play on words — a fresh set of questions in the Oregon Capitol and beyond.

For their part, Democrats are increasingly pointing to the refund to explain why they can’t pay for a growing list of what they call “crises” — housing and homelessness, public defense, mental health, and K-12 education.

Further, the state’s largest labor union is calling out the economists whose consistent underestimations of income tax revenue have sent $10.2 billion out of state coffers over the last decade.  

Here is a quick summary of the politics:

  • Conservatives, including many Republicans, believe the tax money belongs to taxpayers and, so, if there is more than expected, it should be sent back.
  • Liberals, including many Democrats, believe state government – including such programs as K-12 education, higher education, public safety, and social services – needs the money more than taxpayers, so it should be saved for government.

State Senator State Senator Lew Frederick is one of the most vocal opponents of the kicker – and because I know him well from having lobbied him at the Capitol, I report his position.

As a Portland Democrat, Frederick needs little prompting to expound on all the things Oregon could do with the forgone money:  From his perspective, fully fund schools, bolster mental health care, pay for road maintenance.

“We have the money,” Frederick said.  “It’s not available because of the way we’ve designed the kicker, and because folks have been told that somehow spending it is taking money from them.  It’s not.”

Of course, to others, it is – it’s “taking” someone’s money.

A third political issue lurks on the horizon.

A number of years ago, Republicans, concerned that the “spend it all” attitude would prevail, managed to “enshrine” – yes, that is the word that often is used – “enshrine” the kicker law in the State Constitution. 

That means it would take a statewide vote of the people to change it or get rid of it, not just legislative action at the Capitol in Salem.

The very size of the kicker this year – OPB says the “state will send a jaw-dropping $5.6 billion back to taxpayers next year” – has ratcheted up pressure on changing the tax policy, despite how much voters may love it.

There is talk around the Capitol that, (a) the state economist, John McMullen, has not done his job well because his estimates on revenue have been so far off, and, thus, he should be let go, (b) it is time for discussions about how to change the law, so government has money for schools and other programs.

An interesting sidelight, at least so far, is that the state’s highest-ranking Democrat, Governor Tina Kotek, has shown no appetite to propose spending kicker money.  She has repeatedly declined to entertain the idea of diverting the refund to address her top issues of housing and education – and it would take a vote of people, as explained above, to do that deed.

“That personal income tax relief that will come in next year’s taxes is really important to Oregonians,” Kotek told reporters in October.  “If Oregonians want to have a conversation of where the personal income tax kicker goes in the future, let’s have that.”

It may not be smart to bet on politics, but if I was doing so on this issue, I would bet that Oregonians would not vote to get rid of the kicker.

One of the state’s most reputable polling firms, DHM research, says essentially the same thing – 68 per cent of voters want to keep the kicker and only 28 per cent are open to change.

Plus, in the end, most voters will want to keep money in their pockets.